Articles and Op-Eds

Strategic autonomy for Europe in the post-Trump era – 30/11/2020

Articles and Op-Eds December 1, 2020 Comments

The US election results brought great relief to the friends of American democracy (and liberal democracy in general) around the world. The election of an experienced, moderate, dignified, “institutional” new president, a decent man to boot, raises hopes in Europe. Especially since President-elect Joe Biden has a favorable view of international cooperation (Paris climate agreement, the Iran deal, treaties on…

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Two scenarios: Low expectations or utter dystopia – 7/11/2020

Articles and Op-Eds November 11, 2020 Comments

The first US election results contradicted most opinion polls, which predicted a far greater lead for the Democrats. The count so far lies at the lowest threshold of expectations. Yet another indication that America is becoming a society that traditional analytical tools struggle to explain, let alone predict. At this time, the odds remain in favor of Joe Biden but…

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Carrots and sticks in EU response to Turkey – 5/10/2020

Articles and Op-Eds October 5, 2020 Comments

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is aggressive and militaristic. He has invaded Syria, Libya, Iraq, he supports Hamas against Fatah in Palestine, does not recognize Cyprus, and has quarreled with half the Mediterranean. He asks for things that cannot be accepted, such as the disarmament of the eastern Aegean Greek islands or his denial that the islands have a continental shelf. He…

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The horizon behind the Turkish frigates – 8/9/2020

Articles and Op-Eds September 9, 2020 Comments

The escalation of tension with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean poses obvious dangers, which however pale in comparison to future risks. What are the main trends shaping tomorrow’s conditions in the region? First, the gradual withdrawal of the United States will likely continue even under an administration led by Joe Biden, though in a far more orderly manner than under…

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